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TOPIC: The Top 10 + The Bottom 8 |
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| ouchie
July 10, 2008
9:57:50 PM
Entry #: 2826060
| We are at the halfway point of the season (113 games played of 225). Lots of ball still to be played. However, based on exhaustive research, hours of number crunching, and review of games remaining, here’s how I see the final standings looking:
Team PTS
DST Output 42
Remax 38
Plumbers 38
Wild Wing 35
Harding Display 34
Crupilaw 34
Angus Glen 32
Trvael Lovers 32
Jakes On Main 30
Bisons 30
MAS Medical 24
Kelsey's 24
Bistro 18
The School 18
Kavanagh 8
Griffith’s 7
Village Grocer 4
Unionville Arms 2
The School and Blacksmith Bistro each have very tough second half schedules, so the prediction models say that they will be out of the Championship round. Kelsey’s and MAS can (perhaps) make a run to squeeze out another team, but they also have a tough road ahead.
Anyway, good luck to all.
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| daump
July 10, 2008
11:27:18 PM
Entry #: 2826198
| Given the chance to play prognosticator for 2008, I’ve dusted off the old spreadsheet and checked how this year’s playoff teams might be likely to fare. I will report back on Friday
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| ouchie
July 11, 2008
3:06:01 PM
Entry #: 2826990
| daump, spreadsheets just aren’t going to cut it.
My prediction models are very precise. They take into account many factors and variables, and then they are run through a Cray super-computer at warp speed to calculate final standings. Some variables considered are a team’s past performance, future schedule, weather patterns, umpire rotation, and vacation time booked.
There are certain individual variables used also. In the case of Kelsey’s, jimmy’s 2 work days per month are compared to the remaining schedule to see if he will miss any games. For Angus Glen, Thistle’s golf handicap is used as a variable. The higher the handicap, the more likely he will spend at the range improving his golf swing, meaning less time working on his slo-pitch swing. For Travel Lovers, the number of back-to-back games is considered. That team tends to be much slower and more lethargic in the second game, probably related to the amount of beer and number of wings consumed after the first game (not to mention getting in a 3am). I am working to develop a beer to wing ratio calculation for all teams, but it not ready yet.
Anyway, based on these exact calculations, I’d be surprised if my predictions are out more than a point or two for any team.
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| Poncho
July 11, 2008
3:20:57 PM
Entry #: 2827005
| LOL..Ouchie I'm with you brother!!
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| Cuddles
July 11, 2008
10:17:14 PM
Entry #: 2827461
| Hey Ouchie
I am not sure who you are. I agree with you that my team the Bistro has a tough schedule but you think we are only going to 2 of our last 13 games.
That is a bit of an insult.
Come on. I think we are a little better than that.
As long as we have the "Tuna Man" we are in every game.
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| .adrenaline
July 12, 2008
12:30:21 AM
Entry #: 2827582
| Must be some really good stuff ouchie. I mean, it has to be a helluva lot more complicated than multiplying everything by two.
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| CC & coke
July 12, 2008
10:41:25 AM
Entry #: 2827711
| TOP 10
Wild Wing
Harding Display
Remax
Plumbers
Angus Glen
MAS Medical
Jakes On Main
DST Output
Crupilaw
Bisons
The other 8
Kelsey's
Bistro
The School
Travel Lovers
Village Grocer
Kavanagh
Griffith’s
Unionville Arms
The teams that will compete in the second half are Wild wing, Harding, MAS and Angus. The teams on a serious decline are TL, Bisons and DST. Those three teams are old and are overrated.
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| corkscrew
July 13, 2008
1:11:14 AM
Entry #: 2828149
| I think we're all in agreement that the first half of the season has eliminated 4 teams (Arms, VG, Kav and Griff) from playoff contention. My prediction for the second half is that Kelsey's, School, Bistro and Angus will all fall short while Crupi gets in on the last night of the season.
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| jimmy
July 13, 2008
9:44:11 AM
Entry #: 2828226
| Top 10 and Bottom 8 mean nothing now that the conny champs get bumped to the final round. Whoever is on fire that weekend in the top group could get blindsided by an even hotter conny champ. Predictions mean nothing they are just guesses and a waste of your time at the office computer. The best route might just be to stay in the bottom and then jump to the championship round, it is not like anyone in this league has done anything sneaky like that before, sorry, nevermind, it happens everyday. Here's to the hot bats that last weekend and here's to the upsets.
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| PCDN
July 15, 2008
8:09:35 AM
Entry #: 2830659
| Why is jimmy always talking about cheating? It speaks to his lack of moral fiber
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| Gimme
July 15, 2008
9:02:41 AM
Entry #: 2830701
| jimmy's fibre is just fine. Better than almost all in the league, if the truth be known.
He speaks about cheating because, lo and behold, it's happening out there. And, I know this may shock you, it gets worse and we get closer to the playoffs.
So, Mr Naive, wake up and smell the roses.
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| jimmy
July 15, 2008
11:07:49 AM
Entry #: 2830899
| Fibre, I have bran every morning. Dont forget to read the whole message not what you want to hear that is how many posts are misunderstood. My point was that even if you do not get to the top 10 you can still get to the finals via the bottom eight. A top team may have a rough last part of their schedule and may finish in the bottom 8 but they are a top 10 team, you do the math. As for cheating,if you do not think it happens, open your eyes. The reserve list is always a contraversy (was a game not replayed last year because of it?)and even though I was in Niagara Falls on sunday all i saw and heard was plumbers 10 out. Again i was not there but it obviously ticked some people off whether it was legit or not. How come when there is a crucial game certain teams only have their best 10 out, some play with ten all year. Look at the draft and the sreaming and shouting it caused this year (and other years). Again read the whole post befor you rant and facts are facts. I could care less because this is just softball but it happens, even in a rec league. lets just play ball.
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| daump
July 15, 2008
2:03:17 PM
Entry #: 2831222
| Jimmeeeeeeeeeee for president.
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| Mac
July 17, 2008
8:58:25 AM
Entry #: 2833870
| As usual, the information on this forum is not up to par. Gimmie and Jimmy print this kind of incendiary garbage above.
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| MealzJR
July 17, 2008
8:13:45 PM
Entry #: 2834909
| Hey Jimmy...
I'd like to correct you (James from Plumbers)...
We actually had 9 players which did not include Steve Mac, Bruce Mehuys or our starting Pitcher.
Get some more detail before you decide to make an ass out of yourself again.
We were at a disadvantage and were lucky to win.
I look forward to your next attempt at fame,
J.
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| The Whale
July 17, 2008
9:23:30 PM
Entry #: 2834969
| James, I think Jimmy was talking about Playoff Sunday. And yes we only had 12 out for the finals. My dad had shingles and could not play, Bob had shoulder surgury and Paul was in Ottawa for a wedding. When you hear we only had 10 out that was Saturday morning against Jakes, and the two other guys had legitimate excuses, all other games that weekend we had 12, and obviously those 12 played great all weekend.
People might forget 3 years ago (2005) when the Plumbers were in the final game and we played with 14. The one person missing was Bruce M (our best player).
The 2 years before that (2004,2003) while Brett and I were on Crupi we played with 14 players in each of those final games. We obviously lost both of those finals but again showed a team can do well in the playoffs with 14/15 guys.
I completely agree that it should be easier to win with less players but I would love to see the real stats on that. Let's open up the game sheets from this year and previous years and see if there is a strong correlation. The big question is, what do we do if there is? Personally I don't have a clue but I would like people to stop accusing the Plumbers of cheating last year, The fact that we won 12 of our last 13 games to make it into 10th spot by 1 point and then played fantastic as a team all weekend is good enough for me.
Mike Whalen (Plumbers)
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| Web USPL
July 17, 2008
10:46:59 PM
Entry #: 2835067
| The Plumbers won the championship in 2007 with integrity and creditability in my humble opinion. We played them in the final game and they were the better team. Calling them anything but 07 title holders does not give proper respect to the fantastic final and the league. My hat goes off to them.
Chris(DST Output)
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| Con
July 18, 2008
8:41:21 AM
Entry #: 2835292
| Jimmy’s team has made a conscious decision to play with only a maximum of fourteen players in the last couple of years. His statements are infuriating when their bench is short.
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| kaber
July 18, 2008
10:24:57 AM
Entry #: 2835447
| Guys,
The Bistro beat (yes I said Beat) Plumbers 2 times last year, 1 time with a shortened bench 1 time with a full team (I think Bobby was out with the shoulder thing) and I have to say they, like many teams play when they can with a full team...The Plumber's are just a good team that will win more than their fare share of games with or without a full team and I think this finger pointing always occurs with the top teams...just surprised no one is looking at US...
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| .adrenaline
July 18, 2008
1:03:10 PM
Entry #: 2835700
| Alright it's time to settle this once and for all. In my opinion, stats are facts and they are the most accurate way of determining how good a team really is. What I’m going to do is post the standings in accordance to everyone’s Pythagorean Win-Loss record.
If you have never heard of this, a Pythagorean record determines what the standings SHOULD be through the amount of runs for and runs allowed multiplied by games played. Confused already? For those of you who may have flunked Gr. 5 math or are not named Mike Wilner, look at this as you would for the normal standings and assume that there are no ties (sorry for taking away your 20 run glory, Griffith) and there is no “cheating.” When you compare this to the normal standings, you will realize how lucky some teams are and how lucky some teams aren’t. I’ve rounded all the wins to the nearest whole number so for more accurate results, just multiply the percentage by the number of games played yourself (for example, Bistro should have 7.722 wins but I’ve rounded that).
1. DST Output 9-3 (.727)
2. Sylvia Houghton Remax 9-5 (.653)
3. Crupilaw 8-5 (.640)
4. Blacksmith’s Bistro 8-5 (.594)
5. Harding Display 9-6 (.572)
6. Complete Plumbing 8-6 (.599)
7. Wild Wing 8-6 (.590)
8. Flakeboard Bisons 9-6 (.589)
9. Angus Glen 8-6 (.557)
10. Travel Lovers/State Farm Insurance 8-6 (.553)
11. M.A.S. Medical Supplies Inc. 9-7 (.538)
12. Jakes on Main 8-7 (.502)
13. Kelsey’s 6-7 (.495)
14. The School Fine Dining 7-7 (.491)
15. Kavanagh Roofing 5-9 (.329)
16. Griffith Property Services 4-10 (.296)
17. Unionville Arms 3-12 (.218)
18. Village Grocer 3-13 (.202)
And while I’m at it, the Blue Jays should be 50-45 (.527) meaning yes, they are unlucky.
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| Houghts
July 18, 2008
3:36:57 PM
Entry #: 2835977
| MiKe
If you go back and look at the pictures
2001 - 15
2002 - 14 (one player moved away 1/2 way thru the yr)
2003 - 13 (2 were away on vac or bus)
2005 - 13 (played with 15 until sunday morning and 2 guys pulled muscles)
2006 - 15 (to appease Jets6400 even though we had 15 we still cheated because of the slide, right Jets6400?)
It will be interesting to see what fault people will find with the team that wins this year.
Dave
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| U Arms
July 18, 2008
4:45:25 PM
Entry #: 2836076
| adrenaline
Thanks for syaing that the Arms will win three more games.
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| No
July 20, 2008
12:08:18 PM
Entry #: 2837034
| After my careful analysis of the second half was completed, my results were related to the theory of speculation. At the end of the season Harding will have 40 points, Remax 38, Bisons 38, Plumbers 36, Wild Wing 35, Bistro 34, DST 32, Angus 32, MAS 32, Crupi, 30, School 28, Jakes 28, Travel 26, Kelsey 24, Kavanagh 16, Griffith 13, Grocer 10 and Arms 8.
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| ouchie
July 20, 2008
2:32:25 PM
Entry #: 2837099
| Nice try, No, but you need to check you numbers again. All the points you’ve allocated add to 500…. but there are only 450 points up for grabs (18 teams x 25 games).
It seems you too are a big fan of The Bistro. You say they’ll end up with 34 points. On the other hand, I think they’ve played mostly crappy teams in the first half of the season, and they are in for a rude awakening when they have to start playing real good teams. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
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| Hard Express
July 20, 2008
6:32:11 PM
Entry #: 2837266
| To get 40 points we would have to win the remaining ten games. It will be done.
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| jimmy
July 20, 2008
6:38:27 PM
Entry #: 2837273
| this is how rumours start.
gentlemen, i was not there for the plumbers finals, i have no opinion. i was making a point that some teams play with ten, legit or not, there was no shot at plumbers at all in my post. i come out to the park and chat with many players whom i have known for years and some i have just met through the league. people talk and complain but no one says anything. if someone at work takes too long on their breaks, for example, people will talk behind their backs but wont settle the issue. all i did was bring up a point that people talk about for arguement sake, if more people would speak their minds rather that talk behind their backs we would not have so many issues, this is where rumours start. bring them up with the exec or bring it up at the AGM. as for con, get a life, read the post before you type.
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| jimmy
July 20, 2008
6:45:24 PM
Entry #: 2837277
| MealzJr, i was not there for the finals and can't have an opinion, as far as i am concerned plumbers won the finals, not there, no opinion. Sorry if it sounded off base, no punn intended.
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| Kav Man
July 20, 2008
9:03:48 PM
Entry #: 2837403
| Jimmy, answer the question. We know we won't see you in the playoffs. You're like an NBA player when they fight. You throw punches as you're running backwards at full speed. We'll be there getting pumped to destroy the Plumbers because they're so not good! You're very insignificant. The end.
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| .adrenaline
July 25, 2008
4:58:58 PM
Entry #: 2844867
| Pythagorean standings as of July 25th, 2008. (sorted by winning percentage disregarding ties)
1. DST Output .709
2. Sylvia Houghton Remax .668
3. Crupilaw .623
4. Angus Glen .599
5. Flakeboard Bisons .589
6. Blacksmith’s Bistro .585
7. Wild Wing .584
8. Complete Plumbing .569
9. Harding Display .564
10. Travel Lovers/State Farm Insurance .553
11. M.A.S. Medical Supplies .530
12. Jakes on Main .510
13. The School Fine Dining .491
14. Kelsey’s .445
15. Kavanagh Roofing .353
16. Griffith Property Services .332
17. Unionville Arms .224
18. Village Grocer .192
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| Jets6400
July 25, 2008
5:16:48 PM
Entry #: 2844890
| Mr. Adrenaline
How many points for each team with your theory?
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| .adrenaline
July 26, 2008
5:32:02 PM
Entry #: 2845606
| Alright, let's move ties back into the equation...well sort of. Assuming that there are no ties between now and the night of Sep. 18 when the league "braintrust" gets together and applies the "tiebreaker":
1. DST Output 19-5-1 -> 39 pts.
2. Sylvia Houghton Remax 19-6-0 -> 38 pts.
3. Flakeboard Bisons 16-9-0 -> 36 pts.
4. Crupilaw 16-9-0 -> 36 pts.
T5. Complete Plumbing 15-10-0 -> 30 pts.
T5. Angus Glen 15-10-0 -> 30 pts.
T5. Harding Display 15-10-0 -> 30 pts.
T5. Travel Lovers/State Farm Insurance 15-10-0 -> 30 pts.
9. Wild Wing 13-10-2 -> 28 pts.
10. Blacksmith's Bistro 13-11-1 -> 27 pts.
11. Jakes on Main 13-12-0 -> 26 pts.
12. The School Fine Dining 12-13-0 -> 24 pts.
13. M.A.S. Medical Supplies 11-14-0 -> 22 pts.
14. Kelsey's 11-14-0 -> 22 pts.
15. Kavanagh Roofing 7-17-1 -> 15 pts.
16. Griffith Property Services 7-17-1 -> 15 pts.
17. Unionville Arms 4-21-0 -> 8 pts.
18. Village Grocer 3-22-0 -> 6 pts.
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| HR leader
July 29, 2008
11:54:39 AM
Entry #: 2848691
| Grocer win 3 games, that nust be a joke.
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| ouchie
August 13, 2008
11:39:44 AM
Entry #: 2868290
| Hey Cuddles,
Perhaps I was wrong about Bistro and how many wins that you’d have in the second half of the season. Since your only win in the last 2 months has been a 5-4 shellacking of highly-touted Kavanagh, I think I may have to revise my 2-win projection DOWNWARDS.
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| BB
August 13, 2008
12:58:14 PM
Entry #: 2868453
| Well put Ouchie. Very eloquent. Your intelligence is an inspiration to us all. You, sir, are a wordsmith. Maybe next time attempt a word or two that exceeds 7 letters.
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| Torch
August 13, 2008
2:31:11 PM
Entry #: 2868608
| BB, don't tell me that you are educated!! Or is it like a reverse psychology thing?
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| Cuddles
August 14, 2008
7:50:41 PM
Entry #: 2870383
| Hey Ouchie - who ever you might be........you may be right about how many wins the Bistro will get................but remember one important matter........regardless of if we win or lose the
beers, wings and pizzas all go down good at the
Arms after the game. That is what this league is all about.
Maybe you should get a life instead of analyzing our Recreation Fun League schedule..
See ya
Cuddles
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