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TOPIC: Lucky ducks |
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| Yank the Tank
August 25, 2009
10:49:23 PM
Entry #: 3256444
| I decided to take a look at which at which teams have been lucky or unlucky the most so far this season. Of course, the definition of lucky is going to be pretty subjective to people. Here is how I have defined it, and have defined it in the past as well lest there be any concerns that I gerrymandered my criteria.
I use Runs Against over Runs For, which is my favorite team-wide metric for determining expected runs allowed and scored, to come up with an expected won-loss record based on the pythagorean method. The lucky teams are Crupi, Travel Lovers, and Complete Plumbing. They should have not won as many games as they have. The really lucky ones are Angus, Arms and Digital. They both should have won two games this year. Buy some lottery tickets boys.
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| Flip this Bat
August 26, 2009
12:16:38 AM
Entry #: 3256521
| I hear the Arms won another lucky won tonight!! Guess who the opposition was.
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| still cookin
August 26, 2009
8:10:37 AM
Entry #: 3256667
| Well you might be a mathmatician and can use a calculator but logic is not one of your strong suits. You see both teams do not necessarily play the same number of innings in a ball game. The home team whoever they might be if they are leading by 1 run or 20 runs when time is complete get the win but do not get the final at bat. So to make a statement that the lucky teams have the lowest differential between runs scored and run produced is impossible to do with the way the games are ended. Also a team coming from behing to win a game in the last at bat only needs to score 1 more run than the opposition to end the game thereby ending their ability to score more runs and improve the differential between runs for and against. You should find a better way to rate your teams before calling anyone lucky !!!!!!
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| still cookin
August 26, 2009
8:32:32 AM
Entry #: 3256689
| The arms won last night against a team that was flat and not playing to their full potential. They are not in first place because they have played like that all year. The arms played with a 5 man infield last night which worked well in Crosby. I hope the employ this defensive strategy against a team that is not flat and can place the ball. Those poor outfielders will be running their butts off chasing the rolling ball as the opposition runs the bags. Did you ever notice that a runner moves faster as he is rounding the bags rather than chasing a ball in the outfield. Just something to consider.
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| Yank the Tank
August 26, 2009
9:27:14 AM
Entry #: 3256766
| Stay in the kitchen and cook. My theory is accurate.
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| Bowen #19
August 26, 2009
10:39:56 AM
Entry #: 3256877
| That’s funny you should mention that that because I do believe the #1 team in the league last night used our 5 man infield a couple times last night. Guess they saw it working for us so they took a page out of our book. Huh. But yeah you’re probably right it will never work in the playoffs. We might as well just scrap that defensive lineup now?. Although having those young gazelles in the outfield does give us an option to use the 5 infielders. There is a reason why we drafted Jayden, Hawkins and our star center fielder Mike Matunin.
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| still cookin
August 26, 2009
5:39:10 PM
Entry #: 3257385
| So that we can understand your resaoning. Please enlighten us by providing us the numbers you get on a team by team basis so we can judge it ourselves. At what run differential would you say that a win would be lucky 1 , 2 , 5 then look at how many times the particular team has won by your lucky number. That may be more reflective and is just as subjective as your process based on the numbers you decided to use. And is winning by 1 run luck or great defense when require or a great come from behind win.
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| still cookin
August 27, 2009
5:49:05 PM
Entry #: 3258437
| Explain me this. How did you miss naming Remax as being a luck team. They have scored less runs (275) than they have given up (327) and have won more games than these lost. 12 wins, 11 losses. I still don't know about your theory.
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| Yank the Tank
August 28, 2009
12:23:05 AM
Entry #: 3258718
| Now if I could determined how much teams slacked off, which I could not do because I didn't have the game sheets. If I did then I would more than likely conclude that the better defensive teams win because of lucky not skill. So again the teams I mentioned were just lucky.
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| still cookin
August 28, 2009
4:08:45 PM
Entry #: 3259325
| How many variables do you need to know before you will admit that the initial statement was somewhat flawed!! If you can't back it up with numbers then your statement holds no water.
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| ADHD3
September 1, 2009
12:51:05 AM
Entry #: 3261882
| The question everyone's asking is which teams are for real and which teams will rebound back towards pre-season expectations? Well, in addition to reminding everyone that the last few games may significantly change our expectations of certain teams, we can look at which win totals are backed up by context-neutral performances and which are results of some flukiness. I believe that Remax, Nvision and Travel Lover should be playing in the connie , most of their points were earned by accident. Going to bed.
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| Steaner Jr
September 1, 2009
9:48:06 AM
Entry #: 3262059
| Nvision has 34 Pts and is in 1st place......that's a ton of accidental points...Get to bed, you need some rest.
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| still cookin
September 2, 2009
8:55:27 AM
Entry #: 3263078
| DST, Harding and Crupi won last night. Was that luck tank or solid baseball teams doing what they do best.
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| still cookin
September 3, 2009
11:01:27 AM
Entry #: 3264407
| It still bothers me why you would use a mathematical equation that determines the length of the hypotenuse side of a 90 degree triangle and try to relate it to baseball teams being lucky. When you use the correct method of looking at the number of wins. Then determine why your team doesn't have as many or more you might figure out why those teams are where they are.
I agree sometimes luck does play a factor in the games and if we were lucky we would have at least 2 more wins. Otherwise I thnk that the teams that win, do win because they are better than the opposition on that particular night. Nothing more nothing less and enough of this topic.
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| Yank the Tank
September 3, 2009
9:28:59 PM
Entry #: 3265031
| You are correct cooking monster, I retract my earlier post. The only one lucky is me to read your articulate posts. I regret my early statements. Can I come to cooking school with you, if I am lucky?
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