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TOPIC: USPL Playoff Madness |
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| mdufault
September 17, 2017
10:59:42 PM
Entry #: 4231223
| The playoffs are less than 24 hours away. It feels almost like our own version of March Madness. I thought it might be interesting to trying an predict each team's chances of making the Final 4.
I used the runs for and against for games only against the other 12 playoff teams in order to estimate each team's probability of winning each game in our tournament bracket format. After some math and a little bit of programming, here's what the model spits out.
Below are the win probabilities for Monday's first-round matchups.
5 Cairney Homes (65%) vs. 12 M.J. Connell Real Estate (35%)
6 Harding Display (46%) vs. 11 Beaver Army Surplus (54%)
7 Unionville Arms (29%) vs. 10 Starks Barber (71%)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (76%) vs. 9 Kelsey's (24%)
Below are the probabilities for the entire tournament.
The first number is the probability of making the Final 4 (make it to Sunday), and the second number is the probability of winning the title.
As many probably would expect, DST is the clear favourite. So the question is, can anybody pull the upset?
1 DST (84%, 44%)
2 Active Health Center (37%, 3%)
3 Dave Houghton Realty (71%, 24%)
4 Duchess (56%, 11%)
5 Cairney Homes (28%, 3%)
6 Harding Display (13%, <1%)
7 Unionville Arms (16%, <1%)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (10%, <1%)
9 Kelsey's (<1%, <1%)
10 Starks Barber (55%, 11%)
11 Beaver Army Surplus (19%, 2%)
12 M.J. Connell Real Estate (9%, <1%)
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| Sensrule
September 18, 2017
12:14:03 AM
Entry #: 4231227
| Analysis may lead to paralysis. Incredible job with the numbers, it will interesting to read the responses and see which teams actually make the final four.
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| Eau55
September 18, 2017
2:44:46 AM
Entry #: 4231229
| Can you work the numbers for the masters division ?
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| Harry Package
September 18, 2017
11:01:38 AM
Entry #: 4231258
| So the question needs to be asked, anyone want to give me 3-1 odds and take Starks tonight? How much?
Numbers shmumbers, the games are played on the field. good luck to all !
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| Rockstar81
September 18, 2017
5:20:04 PM
Entry #: 4231288
| Do one for the conny teams please.
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| Ethos71
September 20, 2017
12:14:42 AM
Entry #: 4231377
| Who can beat this league.....the data appears to be very accurate.... how cool.... results may or not prove the percentage wrong or right
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| Bigelow
September 20, 2017
6:29:17 PM
Entry #: 4231448
| $50 on Active
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| mdufault
September 22, 2017
1:03:41 PM
Entry #: 4231590
| Below are the win probabilities for Friday's second-round matchups
2 Active Health Center (35%) vs. 10 Starks Barber (65%)
3 Dave Houghton Realty (75%) vs. 6 Harding Display (25%)
4 Duchess (59%) vs. 5 Cairney Homes (41%)
I don't know who won the 8 MAS Medical Supplies vs. 9 Kelsey's game on Monday, so here are the probabilities vs. DST for both teams.
1 DST (85%) vs. 8 MAS Medical Supplies (15%)
1 DST (95%) vs. 9 Kelsey's (5%)
Here are the rest of tournament probabilities (Finish Top 4, Win Title)
1 DST (82%, 42%)
2 Active Health Center (36%, 3%)
3 Dave Houghton Realty (72%, 23%)
4 Duchess (55%, 11%)
5 Cairney Homes (35%, 4%)
6 Harding Display (22%, 2%)
7 Unionville Arms (8%, <1%)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (12%, <1%)
9 Kelsey's (<1%, <1%)
10 Starks Barber (65%, 15%)
11 Beaver Army Surplus (8%, <1%)
12 M.J. Connell Real Estate (4%, <1%)
Best of luck to all the teams. It's going to be a great weekend.
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| David W
September 23, 2017
12:05:03 AM
Entry #: 4231620
| Winners tonight
Active
DST
Cairney
Don't know what happened in the Harding/Remax game.
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| Harry Package
September 23, 2017
1:51:16 AM
Entry #: 4231624
| Numbers Schnumbers is what happened !
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| mdufault
September 23, 2017
10:34:12 AM
Entry #: 4231644
| Thanks for the updates David.
Here are the win probabilities for Saturday's known matchups
1 DST (73%) vs. 5 Cairney Homes (27%)
2 Active Health Center (57%) vs. 6 Harding (43%)
3 Dave Houghton Realty (79%) vs. 12 M.J. Connell Real Estate (21%)
4 Duchess (65%) vs. 11 Beaver Army Surplus (35%)
7 Unionville Arms (82%) vs. 9 Kelsey's (18%)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (23%) vs. 10 Starks Barber (77%)
Here are the rest of tournament probabilities (Finish Top 4, Win Title)
The 4 winners from last night (DST, Active, Cairney, and Harding) saw a huge jump in their odds of making it to Sunday. The other 8 teams need to run the gaunlet and win 3 games today to survive.
1 DST (89%, 64%)
2 Active Health Center (77%, 11%)
3 Dave Houghton Realty (29%, 3%)
4 Duchess (29%, 2%)
5 Cairney Homes (56%, 12%)
6 Harding Display (67%, 6%)
7 Unionville Arms (15%, <1%)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (2%, <1%)
9 Kelsey's (<1%, <1%)
10 Starks Barber (22%, 2%)
11 Beaver Army Surplus (11%, <1%)
12 M.J. Connell Real Estate (2%, <1%)
Best of luck to all the teams today. It's gonna be a great day of baseball. Crosby will be rockin.
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| Web USPL
September 23, 2017
12:31:34 PM
Entry #: 4231651
| Results of the second game:-
Duchess - 11
Beavers - 10
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| mdufault
September 24, 2017
10:09:31 AM
Entry #: 4231692
| Here are the win probabilities for the first games today
1 DST (80%) vs. 6 Harding Display (20%)
7 Unionville Arms (59%) vs. 8 MAS Medical Supplies (41%)
Here are the win probabilities for the rest of the tournament.
The first number is the probability of making it to the final, the second number is the probability of winning the title.
DST is the heavy favourite and still the team to beat.
Unionville Arms and MAS Medical Supplies need to win 4 games today to take the title. They won 3 games yesterday to make the Final 4. Can they do it again?
1 DST (96%, 88%)
2 Active Health Center (5th-6th)
3 Dave Houghton Realty (7th-8th)
4 Duchess (7th-8th)
5 Cairney Homes (5th-6th)
6 Harding Display (62%, 10%)
7 Unionville Arms (27%, 2%)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (15%, <1%)
9 Kelsey's (9th-12th)
10 Starks Barber (9th-12th)
11 Beaver Army Surplus (9th-12th)
12 M.J. Connell Real Estate (9th-12th)
I thought it might also be interesting to look at the Road to the Final 4 for our 4 remaining teams.
The number is bracket was their estimated win probability for that matchup. The last two numbers was the score in the game.
Based on regular season runs for and against, there was definitely a few bracket busters.
1 DST (95%) beat 9 Kelsey's (23-11)
1 DST (73%) beat 5 Cairney Homes (14-13)
6 Harding Display (46%) beat 11 Beaver Army Surplus (21-19)
6 Harding Display (25%) beat 3 Dave Houghton Realty (44-26)
6 Harding Diplay (43%) beat 2 Active Health Center (14-11)
7 Unionville Arms (29%) lost to 10 Starks Barber (4-11)
7 Unionville Arms (82%) beat 9 Kelsey's (17-10)
7 Unionville Arms (33%) beat 4 Duchess (26-7)
7 Unionville Arms (44%) beat 2 Active Health Center (28-17)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (76%) lost to 9 Kelsey's (0-7)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (23%) beat 10 Starks Barber (17-16)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (20%) beat 3 Dave Houghton Realty (22-10)
8 MAS Medical Supplies (33%) beat 5 Cairney Homes (28-22)
Goodluck to everyone on the final day of the season.
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| Tony C
September 24, 2017
10:15:32 PM
Entry #: 4231718
| DST repeated as the USPL 2017 Champions over the Unionville Arms.
Congrats to everyone playing in this tournament.
See you at the AGM
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| mdufault
September 25, 2017
10:23:14 AM
Entry #: 4231757
| Congrats to DST on winning the title. That makes it 4 times in 5 years. You guys are clearly a cut above the rest of the league.
Also congrats to Unionville Arms on making the final. You guys make the big climb all the way to get there, winning 5 games in 2 days. Well done.
Here are the final results, with the playoff win-loss records to the right.
1 DST (1st) = 4-0
2 Active Health Center (5th-6th) = 1-2
3 Dave Houghton Realty (7th-8th) = 1-2
4 Duchess (7th-8th) = 1-2
5 Cairney Homes (5th-6th) = 2-2
6 Harding Display (3rd) = 3-2
7 Unionville Arms (2nd) = 5-2
8 MAS Medical Supplies (4th) = 3-2
9 Kelsey's (9th-12th) = 1-2
10 Starks Barber (9th-12th) = 1-2
11 Beaver Army Surplus (9th-12th) = 0-2
12 M.J. Connell Real Estate (9th-12th) = 0-2
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| Empress Ruler
September 27, 2017
9:20:10 PM
Entry #: 4231935
| All the teams from the lower division did not have much success, go figure.
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| Empress Ruler
November 21, 2017
2:02:27 PM
Entry #: 4235866
| As the season progress..... can we get more stats like this?????
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| Bigelow
March 4, 2018
1:03:58 PM
Entry #: 4243768
| I hope we maintain the division and playoffs goat as we did last year. Two thumbs up for both.
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| JAG 28
March 4, 2018
1:29:48 PM
Entry #: 4243769
| Who you calling a "playoff goat"?
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| Empress Ruler
March 6, 2018
1:37:13 PM
Entry #: 4243875
| Data analysis and probability is awesome game to play.
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| Wonguy
March 8, 2018
3:16:18 PM
Entry #: 4244033
| I like the runs for and against.... wins from previous years etc..
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| Purelife
March 15, 2018
9:47:13 PM
Entry #: 4244615
| The more data we get the better.
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May 17, 2018
7:06:27 PM
Entry #: 4249873
| Hey mdufault,
Let’s get some data on the season.
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