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TOPIC: USPL Conny Madness |
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| mdufault
September 19, 2017
1:42:29 PM
Entry #: 4231347
| As requested, here is the March Madness like breakdown for the Conny side.
I used the runs for and against for games only against the 6 conny teams in order to estimate each team's probability of winning each game in our tournament bracket format. After some math and a little bit of programming, here's what the model spits out.
Below are the win probabilities for Monday's first-round matchups.
4 Unionville Pools (47%) vs. 5 The Roberts Group (53%)
3 Union (71%) vs. 6 Kevin Wilson Law (29%)
As it turns out, both the favourites won (The Roberts Group and Union)
Below are win probabilities for Tuesday's second-round matchups.
1 Nvision/Ed's (81%) vs. 5 The Roberts Group (19%)
2 Crupi Law (55%) vs. 3 Union (45%)
Here are the win probabilities for the other possible Tuesday matchups.
1 Nvision/Ed's (54%) vs. 2 Crupi Law (46%)
1 Nvision/Ed's (59%) vs. 3 Union (41%)
5 The Roberts Group (22%) vs. 2 Crupi Law (78%)
5 The Roberts Group (26%) vs. 3 Union (74%)
6 Kevin Wilson Law (54%) vs. 5 The Roberts Group (46%)
6 Kevin Wilson Law (22%) vs. 1 Nvision/Ed's (78%)
Below are the probabilities for the entire tournament (after taking the Monday results into account)
The first number is the probability of making the Final 3 (make it to the final day), and the second number is the probability of winning the conny.
Nvision/Ed's is the big favourite, and has a great chance of making the Final 3.
The remaining undefeated game at 930 PM tonight at Milliken 5 will be the key game for setting up the tournament.
1 Nvision/Ed's (91%, 48%)
2 Crupi Law (80%, 29%)
3 Union (73%, 20%)
4 Unionville Pools (9%, <1%)
5 The Roberts Group (30%, 2%)
6 Kevin Wilson Law (17%, <1%)
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| mdufault
September 20, 2017
11:37:41 AM
Entry #: 4231406
| Here is the win probability for Thursday's game
3 Union (76%) vs. 4 Unionville Pools (24%)
Here are the updated probabilities for the tournament.
With two wins on Tuesday night, Nvision/Ed's has a bye to the 2-part final. So they are in great shape to win the conny.
Crupi won their first game on Tuesday night, clinching them to make the final day and a top 3 finish.
1 Nvision/Ed's (IN, 82%)
2 Crupi Law (IN, 14%)
3 Union (57%, 4%)
4 Unionville Pools (12%, <1%)
5 The Roberts Group (32%, <1%)
6 Kevin Wilson Law (OUT, OUT)
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| Jets6400
September 21, 2017
7:44:11 PM
Entry #: 4231532
| Wilson is the first out, who in next Union or Poolies ?
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| Cashman
September 22, 2017
10:23:10 AM
Entry #: 4231577
| Wilson Law and the Pool Boys have been elimated
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| mdufault
September 22, 2017
12:48:54 PM
Entry #: 4231589
| Thank you Cashman for updating the thread with last night's result.
Here are the probabilities for tonight's game
3 Union (74%) vs. 5 The Roberts Group (26%)
Here are the rest of tournament probabilities (Finish Top 3, Win Conny)
1 Nvision/Ed's (IN, 82%)
2 Crupi Law (IN, 13%)
3 Union (74%, 5%)
4 Unionville Pools (5th-6th)
5 The Roberts Group (26%, <1%)
6 Kevin Wilson Law (5th-6th)
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| Anchor
September 23, 2017
2:04:18 AM
Entry #: 4231626
| Just a observation:-
Why would teams stay in the parking lot at Milliken and not come to Crosby tonight?
Disgusting behavior to state the obvious.
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| mdufault
September 23, 2017
10:23:11 AM
Entry #: 4231643
| Here is the probability for Saturday's semi-final
2 Crupi Law (55%) vs. 3 Union (45%)
Here are the win probabilities for Saturday's possible finals matchups.
1 Nvision/Ed's (54%) vs. 2 Crupi Law (46%)
1 Nvision/Ed's (59%) vs. 3 Union (41%)
Below are the probabilities of winning the conny
1 Nvision/Ed's (80%)
2 Crupi Law (12%)
3 Union (8%)
4 Unionville Pools (5th-6th)
5 The Roberts Group (4th)
6 Kevin Wilson Law (5th-6th)
Best of luck to all the teams today.
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| mdufault
September 24, 2017
10:16:50 AM
Entry #: 4231693
| Below are the final results. The win-loss record for the tournament is on the right.
Congrats to Nvision/Ed's on winning the Conny!
1 Nvision/Ed's (1st) = 3-0
2 Crupi Law (3rd) = 1-2
3 Union (2nd) = 4-2
4 Unionville Pools (5th-6th) = 0-2
5 The Roberts Group (4th) = 2-2
6 Kevin Wilson Law (5th-6th) = 0-2
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| CC & Coke
September 25, 2017
1:45:44 PM
Entry #: 4231781
| Thanks for the analysis Mark, they were accurate.
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| silverfox
September 26, 2017
6:30:33 AM
Entry #: 4231816
| Union was the team drinking in the parking lot.
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| Knight
October 2, 2017
5:01:54 AM
Entry #: 4232188
| Who stupid was this, support the league.
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| Jets6400
October 3, 2017
9:31:22 PM
Entry #: 4232337
| Three in a row for Ed's. That says someting, no sure exactly what we can glen from that. Maybe the word I'm looking for is consistent.
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| LB4LB
October 6, 2017
2:34:00 PM
Entry #: 4232526
| This team will lay a beating on numerous teams in 2018.
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| Cashman
October 8, 2017
3:01:36 PM
Entry #: 4232643
| Good team, good players but lousy uniforms.
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| Guy Smiley
October 10, 2017
9:20:39 PM
Entry #: 4232791
| Is every team getting new uniforms next year
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| Knight
October 12, 2017
5:56:07 AM
Entry #: 4232878
| Some teams have great jerseys, let's hope this continues. I like the MLB look that many wear.
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| Wongguy
October 14, 2017
2:29:37 PM
Entry #: 4233014
| Do we all change the jersey this year?
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| Jets6400
October 15, 2017
11:42:20 PM
Entry #: 4233111
| The answer is yes.
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| Purelife
October 17, 2017
9:07:39 AM
Entry #: 4233185
| Good solid uniees is a foundation of a good team. You play the way you look. That is why the Yankees win so much.
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| GrindeR
October 18, 2017
8:42:32 PM
Entry #: 4233265
| How cares how you look. Using the bat and glove are the main keys to success.
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| LB4LB
October 21, 2017
12:33:35 PM
Entry #: 4233410
| How do we go about picking team colours ?
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| Guy Smiley
October 24, 2017
12:13:12 PM
Entry #: 4233566
| I was told that the league does not mandate the colours.
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