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Author |
TOPIC: 2019 Seed & Bye Advantage |
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| mdufault
July 28, 2019
7:46:30 PM
Entry #: 4264418
| Hi Everyone,
The playoff odds are back, this time looking at the 2019 season. I will update it every Wednesday after the results from Monday and Tuesdays slate of games are in.
The output of the model can be found under the Pages tab at the top, then select 2019 Playoff Odds. Here is the link for your convenience.
https://www.leaguelineup.com/miscinfo.asp?menuid=35&url=uspl
The Playoff Seed table at the top is the same thing I provided last year.
The Bye Advantage table is new for this year.
Receiving byes is massive for any team’s chance at competing for the title. So I thought you guys might enjoy seeing what the odds in the playoffs look like.
In Round 1, the top 4 teams in the A division receive a bye.
In Round 2, the 4 teams that lost their first-round game receive a bye.
In Round 3, the 4 remaining undefeated teams get a bye.
In Round 5, the 2 remaining undefeated teams get a bye.
In Round 7, the only remaining undefeated team gets a bye.
This season, I will do a weekly write-up talking about the weekly change in the % chance of getting a Round 3 bye. The numbers can serve as a sort of power rankings if you will. So the top B teams who aren’t eligible for a bye in Round 1, are reflected in the list as having a shot at getting a bye in Round 3 as one of the 4 remaining undefeated teams in the playoffs.
Here are the current Round 3 Bye odds.
1. Starks Barber = 82%
2. Metatherapy = 61%
T3. Harding Display = 52%
T3. Cairney Homes = 52%
5. Pool Boys = 49%
6. Crupi Law = 30%
7. Gregory Design = 29%
8. McLean Hallmark = 8%
9. Xterra Landscapes = 7%
T10. Duchess = 6%
T10. The School = 6%
T10. MBL Landscaping = 6%
13. McCalmont Financial = 5%
14. Active Health Center = 4%
15. Freedom 55 Financial = 3%
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| Blumpkin
July 28, 2019
8:21:06 PM
Entry #: 4264420
| Now that is Extraordinary work
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| HR Leader
July 29, 2019
12:32:48 AM
Entry #: 4264439
| Thanks for the analytics.
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| Peatsum
July 29, 2019
3:35:43 PM
Entry #: 4264492
| Looking forward to reading this every week.
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| Rev Hero
July 29, 2019
7:54:50 PM
Entry #: 4264511
| the more info we got the better
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| MBA98
July 30, 2019
12:19:27 AM
Entry #: 4264542
| For many, this over-simplified system of analysis was inherently flawed. This data is simple and easy to comprehend.
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| Tuyuvu
July 30, 2019
8:42:23 AM
Entry #: 4264555
| can anyone catch up to the pool boys for 10
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| Labtech
July 30, 2019
12:53:01 PM
Entry #: 4264581
| It looks like they are a virtual lock for seed number 10. It looks like they only have three remaining opponents that could possibility beat them.
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| uarms
July 31, 2019
10:42:41 AM
Entry #: 4264640
| It appears from my none calculating eye, that the current 8th and 9th seeds will be playing in the B division next year. Well done.
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| mdufault
July 31, 2019
11:24:48 AM
Entry #: 4264642
| Here are the Round 3 Bye Odds (Power Rankings) after the Tues July 30 games.
When the playoff odds tables are updated, they can be found at the link below.
https://www.leaguelineup.com/miscinfo.asp?menuid=35&url=uspl
1 (same) Starks Barber = 86% (+4%) = Beat Freedom 33-9, dropping them out of the power rankings.
2 (+1) Harding Display = 62% (+10%) = Their Round 3 bye odds jumped 10% this week due to Pool Boys dropping by 12%, with the two teams having a 68% chance of meeting in Round 2.
3 (same) Cairney Homes = 59% (+7%) = Beat Metatherapy 26-11 on Monday, giving them the edge to get the 3 seed.
4 (-2) Metatherapy = 57% (-4%) = If there is a dominant 10 seed like in years past, the 3 seed has a better chance of getting a Round 3 Bye over the 2 seed. That's why Metatherapy was 2nd in the bye odds last week.
5 (same) Pool Boys = 37% (-12%) = Won a close game 29-28 over Xterra on Monday and lost 7-22 to Gregory Design on Tuesday. This reduced their run differential per game from 7.3 down to 5.6, reducing their expected winning percentage, and the odds they can topple Harding Display in Round 2.
6 (+1) Gregory Design = 32% (+3%) = Beat Pool Boys 22-7 on Tuesday, and with it moved up 1 spot in the power rankings.
7 (-1) Crupi Law = 29% (-1%) = Split this week beating MBL 22-11 on Monday, then losing 31-34 to Duchess on Tuesday. Crupi has the 3rd best offense in the league in terms of runs for per game.
8 (+5) McCalmont Financial = 9% (+4%) = Beat The School 27-19 on Tuesday, and with the other 3 teams they are fighting with for the 12 seed all losing (Freedom, Xterra, Active) their playoff odds jumped from 34% to 61%, and made the biggest jump in the rankings this week.
T9 (+1) Duchess = 7% (+1%) = Went 2-0 this week with a 20-8 win over the School on Monday, and 34-31 win over Crupi on Tuesday.
T9 (-1) McLean Hallmark = 7% (-1%) = Beat Roberts Group 19-13 on Tuesday.
11 (-1) MBL Landscaping = 6% (same) = Split this week, losing to Crupi on Monday, and beating Town & Country on Tuesday.
12 (-2) The School = 4% (-2%) = Lost twice this week, increasing their odds of getting the 9 seed from 78% to 93%.
13 (-4) Xterra Landscapes = 3% (-4%) = Lost twice this week, dropping their playoff odds from 27% to 20%.
14 (+1) Freedom 55 Financial = 1% (-2%) = Lost to Starks Barber this week, decreasing their odds of making the playoffs from 22% to 13%.
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| Eden-xy
August 1, 2019
8:08:16 AM
Entry #: 4264699
| The details are very deep and truly confusing.
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| Larry))
August 2, 2019
12:25:13 PM
Entry #: 4264786
| where is the updated version
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| Rassie
August 3, 2019
11:44:00 AM
Entry #: 4264835
| Looks great.
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| Guy Smiley
August 4, 2019
3:44:39 PM
Entry #: 4264881
| Is the 2 losses last week symbolic of the pooliees playoff run?
They will not be playing Starks in the finale.
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| Empress Ruler
August 5, 2019
1:19:29 PM
Entry #: 4264945
| Good thing I have an obsession with checking the standings and the time to do it. I can now forecast how things are going to go down. By the way, what does it matter if you're in a division when all the teams make the playoffs? If you were in a conference with the top eight and the bottom two from the weaker division make it then we would be talking. The Pool Boys have become the Arms of the old days.
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| 24suited
August 5, 2019
8:34:41 PM
Entry #: 4264974
| The Pool Boys destroy Starks on Tuesday night.
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| Rassie
August 6, 2019
9:29:05 AM
Entry #: 4264990
| Epic showdown tonight @ 8.
Preview of the championship game.
The two best teams going at it.
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| tswear
August 6, 2019
2:24:47 PM
Entry #: 4265023
| The winner will have bragging rights.
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| Birkey
August 7, 2019
7:11:53 AM
Entry #: 4265058
| Not sure of all the results from the games last night but in my mind the inferior division usually can’t get past the stronger division.
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| mdufault
August 7, 2019
3:12:33 PM
Entry #: 4265090
| Here are the Round 3 Bye Odds after the Tues Aug 6 games.
1 Starks Barber = 86% (no change)
2 Harding Display = 66% (+4%)
3 Cairney Homes = 59% (-1%)
4 Metatherapy = 55% (-2%)
T5 Crupi Law = 31% (+2%)
T5 Gregory Design = 31% (-1%)
7 Pool Boys = 29% (-8%)
8 Duchess = 9% (+2%)
T9 MBL Landscaping = 7% (+1%)
T9 McLean Hallmark = 7% (no change)
T9 McCalmont Financial = 7% (-2%)
T9 Freedom 55 Financial = 7% (+6%)
13 The School = 4% (no change)
The team making the biggest jump this week was Freedom (+6%) who had a big win over Xterra, and dropped Xterra out of the rankings.
The team with the largest drop this week was Pool Boys (-8%), who lost to both The Roberts Group and Starks Barber.
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| Bud Wiser
August 8, 2019
6:42:53 PM
Entry #: 4265157
| The pool boys are diving into a green, dirty pool.
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| Faux
August 10, 2019
12:02:39 AM
Entry #: 4265208
| It’s never easy going outside of your comfort zone & playing in one of the biggest games of the year with a championship on the line.
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| Tuyuvu
August 12, 2019
4:49:29 PM
Entry #: 4265283
| few people have the stones to play in a championship game
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| Moulton
August 13, 2019
3:21:00 PM
Entry #: 4266318
| Has Starks clinched already???
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| mdufault
August 14, 2019
9:38:24 AM
Entry #: 4266339
| Here are the Round 3 Bye Odds after the Tues Aug 13 games.
Link to tables
https://www.leaguelineup.com/miscinfo.asp?menuid=35&url=uspl
1 Starks Barber = 85% (-1%)
2 Harding Display = 70% (+4%)
3 Cairney Homes = 65% (+7%)
4 Metatherapy = 52% (-3%)
5 Gregory Design = 32% (+1%)
6 Pool Boys = 26% (-3%)
7 Crupi Law = 25% (-6%)
8 Freedom 55 Financial = 14% (+7%)
T9 Duchess = 9% (no change)
T9 MBL Landscaping = 9% (+2%)
11 McLean Hallmark = 7% (no change)
12 The School = 4% (no change)
13 McCalmont Financial = 3% (-4%)
Two teams were tied for the biggest increase this week at 7%.
Freedom (+7%) had a big win over Gregory Design. Those two teams have a 51% chance of meeting in the first round of the playoffs.
Cairney (+7%) went 2-1 in the last week, with dominating wins over Xterra and Crupi, and a walk-off loss to the School.
The team with the biggest decrease this week was Crupi Law (-6%), who lost to Cairney. There is a 44% chance the two teams meet again in the second round of the playoffs.
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| MI5
August 15, 2019
7:58:44 PM
Entry #: 4266384
| zzzzzzzzzzzzz
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| mdufault
August 21, 2019
9:44:47 AM
Entry #: 4266525
| Here are the Round 3 Bye Odds after the Tues Aug 20 games. The regular season is now 86% complete.
Link to tables
https://www.leaguelineup.com/miscinfo.asp?menuid=35&url=uspl
1 Starks Barber = 86% (+1%)
2 Harding Display = 71% (+1%)
3 Cairney Homes = 67% (+2%)
4 Metatherapy = 47% (-5%)
5 Gregory Design = 39% (+7%)
6 Crupi Law = 25% (no change)
7 Pool Boys = 23% (-3%)
8 Freedom 55 Financial = 12% (-2%)
9 MBL Landscaping = 9% (no change)
10 Duchess = 8% (-1%)
11 McLean Hallmark = 7% (no change)
12 The School = 3% (-1%)
13 McCalmont Financial = 2% (-1%)
The team with the biggest increase this week was Gregory Design (+7%), who beat McCalmont 19-11 this week.
The team with the biggest decrease this week was Metatherapy (-5%), who beat The School 32-29 in a shootout at Crosby and lost 15-16 to Duchess (in a walk-off?).
There is a 57% chance Metatherapy and Gregory Design meet in the second round of the playoffs. That's why the gains made by one team were the losses by the other.
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| mdufault
September 6, 2019
9:11:44 AM
Entry #: 4267943
| Here are the Round 3 Bye Odds after the Thur Sept 5 games. The regular season is now 94% complete.
1 Starks Barber = 79% (-7%)
2 Harding Display = 73% (+2%)
3 Cairney Homes = 64% (-3%)
4 Metatherapy = 49% (+2%)
5 Gregory Design = 33% (-6%)
6 Pool Boys = 24% (+1%)
7 Crupi Law = 22% (-3%)
8 McLean Hallmark = 16% (+9%)
9 MBL Landscaping = 11% (+2%)
10 McCalmont Financial = 10% (+8%)
11 Duchess = 7% (-1%)
12 Freedom 55 Financial = 6% (-6%)
13 The School = 5% (+2%)
14 Xterra Landscapes = 1% (+1%)
The team with the biggest increase in the last two weeks was McLean Hallmark (+9%) who went 2-0-1 beating Starks and Town & Country, and had a rainout tie against Cairney.
The team with the biggest decrease in the last two weeks was Starks Barber (-7%) who went 3-2-1 with wins over (Duchess, Gregory Design, and Crupi), losses to (Cairney and McLean Hallmark), and a rainout tie against Roberts Group.
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